Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 148.194421 172.595463 200.831473 236.175120 279.587846 331.633907 399.453278
2025-11-16 113.869309 142.748664 179.454176 230.371910 300.540695 395.934930 539.210842
2025-11-23 93.706033 123.610031 164.212700 224.915029 316.169659 453.150565 684.565821
2025-11-30 85.844788 118.398994 165.265729 240.280493 362.655572 564.955860 950.213532
2025-12-07 76.853914 109.698706 159.191580 242.840611 388.752986 650.480878 1204.501942
2025-12-14 70.427332 103.623010 155.725761 248.261958 420.077619 753.384582 1537.455177
2025-12-21 64.087697 96.693118 149.640709 247.721666 439.966403 839.851468 1876.964653
2025-12-28 61.666863 95.647800 152.952862 264.272835 496.518402 1021.216530 2555.981402
2026-01-04 58.881799 93.575430 154.075812 276.752898 547.848986 1210.253616 3393.179366
2026-01-11 56.022558 90.987175 153.828210 286.348972 595.345139 1409.273125 4431.726847
2026-01-18 52.891232 87.534629 151.460032 291.028627 632.582827 1596.989476 5615.521262
2026-01-25 49.591684 83.411774 147.254034 290.935711 657.995073 1762.026455 6892.982427
2026-02-01 45.850319 78.226205 140.587223 284.803209 667.904653 1889.848855 8200.143331
2026-02-08 42.518518 73.512039 134.348651 278.703825 676.809018 2021.686740 9752.677066
2026-02-15 39.510426 69.136741 128.295783 272.017720 682.398880 2146.237971 11496.905331
2026-02-22 39.023400 69.648210 132.562690 291.562300 773.261598 2662.936335 17326.011473
2026-03-01 37.254085 67.409786 130.602268 294.827792 814.042265 2999.782807 22775.039606
2026-03-08 35.897962 65.886242 130.039521 301.733095 869.873126 3453.988774 31404.390238
2026-03-15 34.136342 63.360401 126.911757 301.044982 899.007397 3799.944381 40543.481856
2026-03-22 33.877319 63.985480 131.156244 322.174615 1018.334366 4776.081187 67874.344793
2026-03-29 33.271447 63.800906 133.453409 338.160773 1125.445458 5822.365702 111396.073636
2026-04-05 32.474795 63.121273 134.459446 350.483180 1223.657128 6956.487005 182413.712670
2026-04-12 31.401470 61.728142 133.521564 356.501766 1297.249006 8022.648174 286894.015913